Afghanistan once again stands at a cross roads. With the imminent withdrawal of the bulk of the US forces from the country, many of the old challenges are again staring the nation in the face. An election to choose a new president is round the corner. But given Afghanistan’s past experience and the deep ethnic, tribal, linguistic and sectarian differences among the Afghan people, its outcome is more likely to rekindle many old differences, rather than uniting the Afghan people.

The withdrawing American forces have been claiming the credit for having helped raise and train a 300,000 strong Afghan national army which would save the country from insecurity and violence .But the real threat comes from the proliferation of arms and explosives and the existence of heavily armed outfits vying for their share in power. The most prominent among them are the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda. They are sure to assert themselves once the foreign, mainly US, forces withdraw.

Any future government in Afghanistan will therefore have to tackle the challenge posed by the existence of Taliban and al-Qaida.

An equally serious challenge for any future government would be the revival of the economy. More than three decades of foreign intervention starting from the Soviet invasion of the 70’s to the post 9/11 US-led NATO attack, has left the economy of Afghanistan in a shambles. According to World Bank estimates notwithstanding the pumping of billions of dollars in aid and various relief projects by the UN agencies and the Arab and western countries, during the period from 1979 to 2001, Afghan economy suffered to the tune of 240 billion dollars in ruined infrastructure and lost opportunities.

Millions of Afghans left their hearths and homes and migrated to the neighboring countries, while the educated ones shifted to western countries never to return to their home land.

A big task for any new government would be to maintain peace and to rehabilitate the economy. Then it would have to find resources to keep the three hundred thousand troops in battle readiness.

The future government would have to maintain close ties with the US and other western states that have helped the post-9/11 Afghanistan, in order to keep going till the country is able to stand on its own feet economically and politically. In this effort it would face many inner contradictions, especially with the Taliban element who would now seek their due share in governance and a say in national affairs.

It would have been in the fitness of things if the outgoing dispensation had entered into a dialogue with the Afghan Taliban before the next elections to ensure a smooth sailing for the next government. That not having come about, one would have to keep ones fingers crossed about the prospects of the future government in Afghanistan.

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